[Impact of New-type Urbanization on Carbon Balance Pressure and Spatial Spillover Effects in the Yellow River Basin]

Bringing carbon emissions and carbon sequestration into a unified framework and revealing the impact of new-type urbanization on carbon balance pressure are of great practical significance to the realization of high-quality urban development and the "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals." Based on the panel data of 66 cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2010 to 2022， this study first depicts the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of new-type urbanization and carbon balance pressure. Subsequently， using the baseline model and the spatial Durbin model， the study empirically examines the impact of new-type urbanization on carbon balance pressure and its spatial spillover effects. It was found that： ① From 2010 to 2022， the new-type urbanization level and carbon balance pressure index of the Yellow River Basin showed an upward trend， with the proportion of cities with medium urbanization level increasing from 16.67% to 54.55% and the upstream and midstream regions mostly distributing carbon-absorbing cities， while the downstream regions mostly concentrated on cities with carbon emission overload. ② The new-type urbanization significantly exacerbated the carbon balance pressure， which still held after a series of robustness tests. ③ Heterogeneity results showed that new-type urbanization had a significant positive effect on the carbon balance pressure of upstream， midstream， and downstream cities； non-low-carbon pilot cities； resource-based cities； and manufacturing-oriented cities. The effect on upstream and downstream cities was stronger compared with that on midstream cities， while the effect on low-carbon pilot cities， non-resource-based cities， and service-oriented cities was not significant. ④ Spatial effect results showed that new-type urbanization exacerbated the pressure on carbon balance in neighboring regions through spatial spillover effects. In the future， a cross-regional synergistic governance framework should be constructed， and policies should be applied according to cities to promote the synergistic development of new-type urbanization and carbon balance.