[Structural Evolution and Carbon Emission Reduction Path in China's Power Sector Based on LEAP-ABM Model]

Exploring low-carbon transition pathways in the power sector holds significant importance for promoting comprehensive green transformation of the economy and society and achieving carbon neutrality goals. To prevent supply-demand structural imbalances during low-carbon transition， this study develops a LEAP-ABM model integrating historical data from China's energy-intensive industries with a multi-agent simulation platform. From a demand-supply dual-drive synergy perspective， we conduct dynamic predictions on technology evolution pathways and carbon emission trajectories in China's power sector over the medium to long-term horizon （through 2060）. The results indicated that： ① Regarding power structure evolution， significant synergistic effects existed between supply-demand transformations. High-speed demand-side transition accelerated supply-side transformation， with wind and solar installed capacity increasing by 5% and 2.2% in 2030 and 2060， respectively， compared to that in the low-speed demand-side scenarios. Under low-speed demand-side conditions， high-speed supply-side development strategies elevated the proportion of wind and solar installations to 80.66% by 2040. ② In terms of power generation， demand-side transition speed primarily affected total supply. By 2060， high-speed transition scenarios achieved 1.5×10¹³-1.6×10¹³ kW·h production， exceeding the 1.3×10¹³ kW·h under low-speed scenarios. Supply-side strategies mainly influenced generation structure. Under dual low-speed scenarios in 2040， renewable energy accounted for 31.3%， while coal power remained at 48.93%， whereas accelerated supply-side transition reduced coal power to 31.01% and increased renewables to 47.88%. ③ Regarding carbon emissions， supply-side strategies exerted greater influence than demand-side measures. Dual high-speed transformation demonstrated optimal emission reduction effects. Notably， singular high-speed demand-side transition unexpectedly increased emissions by 7.5% compared to those under dual low-speed scenarios.