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Updated: May 28, 2026

An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
05:37

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Published on: September 16, 2022

Rational sycophants and catastrophic risks.

Robert Axelrod1, Scott E Page1,2

  • 1Ford School of Public Policy, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48104.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
|May 26, 2026
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Rational sycophancy occurs when advisors support harmful actions due to outcome asymmetry, risking catastrophic policy decisions. Leaders struggle to differentiate this from wise counsel, increasing organizational risk.

Keywords:
catastrophic riskdecision-makingsycophancy

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Area of Science:

  • Decision Sciences
  • Behavioral Economics
  • Organizational Behavior

Background:

  • Sycophancy involves advisors supporting leaders for personal gain.
  • Rational sycophancy is defined as supporting potentially harmful actions despite equal reward/punishment.
  • This behavior is linked to specific statistical properties of action outcomes.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To define and explore the concept of rational sycophancy.
  • To identify conditions under which rational sycophancy arises and persists.
  • To analyze the risks associated with rational sycophancy in leadership decisions.

Main Methods:

  • Theoretical analysis of decision-making under uncertainty.
  • Examination of outcome distributions, focusing on expected value and median.
  • Exploration of long-tailed distributions and their implications for risk assessment.

Main Results:

  • Rational sycophancy emerges when actions have negative expected value but positive median outcomes (outcome asymmetry).
  • Long-tailed distributions amplify risk, particularly when catastrophic outcomes are possible.
  • Leaders face challenges distinguishing rational sycophancy from sound advice due to limited information from single outcomes.

Conclusions:

  • Rational sycophancy can lead to undue influence and increase the probability of catastrophic policy failures.
  • Understanding outcome asymmetry and long-tailed distributions is crucial for mitigating these risks.
  • Effective leadership requires robust mechanisms to discern advice quality beyond immediate feedback.