[Simulation and Prediction of Land Use Change and Carbon Storage Spatiotemporal Evolution in Yulin City Based on the...

The carbon storage capacity of different land use types in terrestrial ecosystems varies significantly. Proper land use and management strategies can enhance the ecosystem's carbon storage capacity. To investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of carbon storage in response to land use changes, we take Yulin City as a case study. Based on land use data from 2000 to 2020, the InVEST model and PLUS model were coupled, integrating socioeconomic and ecological conditions, to simulate land use and carbon storage dynamics in Yulin City under three different scenarios for 2030. The results indicate that: ① The Yulin land use pattern underwent significant changes from 2000 to 2020, with cropland and grassland consistently dominating, accounting for over 80% of the total area. The areas of forestland, grassland, water bodies, and construction land increased, with construction land experiencing the most dramatic growth, reaching a 454.11% increase. Meanwhile, the areas of cropland and unused land continued to decline. ② The total carbon storage in Yulin City was 463.62 Tg in 2000, 467.22 Tg in 2010, and 465.21 Tg in 2020. Compared to that in 2020, the projected carbon storage in 2030 is expected to decrease by 1.52 Tg under the natural development scenario and by 0.61 Tg under the cropland protection scenario. In contrast, under the ecological protection scenario, carbon storage is anticipated to increase by 1.84 Tg. Spatially, areas with increased carbon storage were mainly concentrated in the eastern part of Yulin City and the Mu Us Desert Region in the northwest, while areas with reduced carbon storage were primarily distributed in the central-northern and southwestern parts of the city. ③ Land use change was closely related to carbon storage variation. The conversion of grassland into construction land and unused land had a significantly negative impact on carbon storage. Conversely, the conversion of cropland into forestland and grassland, as well as the reduction of unused land, positively contributed to carbon storage. The findings of this study have important practical significance for promoting sustainable development in Yulin City and achieving its "dual carbon" goals.