[Optimizing the Spatial Pattern of Carbon Sink Services in the Northern Tianshan Economic Zone Based on...

Under the background of global climate change and the "dual-carbon" goals, optimizing the spatial pattern of carbon sequestration services is crucial for achieving regional carbon neutrality and the coordinated development of ecological and economic aspects. Using the northern Tianshan economic zone as a case, this study combines the PLUS and InVEST models to simulate the impact of land use/cover changes (LUCC) in four scenarios-natural development (ND), urban development (UD), farmland protection (CP), and ecological protection (EP)-on carbon storage by 2035. Additionally, a Bayesian network is used to analyze the driving mechanisms, and a spatial optimization zoning plan is proposed. The results show that: ① LUCC significantly regulated carbon sequestration services, with carbon storage distributed in a "southwest belt and northeast spot" pattern. High-value areas were concentrated in the south covered by forests and grasslands, and low-value areas were scattered in the north's construction land and unused land, showing a fragmented pattern. ② Multi-scenario simulations indicated that by 2035, carbon storage in the natural development scenario and urban development scenario in 2035 will have decreased by 0.74% and 1.56%, respectively, compared to those in 2020, while the farmland protection and ecological protection scenarios will increase by 0.34% and 0.02%, showing that farmland protection and ecological constraints could effectively reduce carbon loss. ③ Based on geographical detectors and Bayesian networks, the study area was divided into ecological conservation, buffer, farmland optimization, and construction optimization zones. The northwest needs priority intensive development and carbon quota management, and the southern ecological core should limit development to restore vegetation. Optimizing the spatial pattern based on the current carbon sequestration services provides a scientific tool for land space planning and carbon neutrality paths in arid regions, assisting in defining ecological protection red lines and promoting ecological-economic development under the "dual-carbon" goals.