Evolution of the Performance of the Malaria Control Program in Burkina Faso: Analysis from 2020 to 2024

Malaria continues to pose a major public health challenge in Burkina Faso, negatively affecting its population. Despite notable progress, eliminating this disease remains a daunting task. This study assessed the effectiveness of the National Malaria Control Program (NMCP) between 2020 and 2024.

An ecological methodology was applied using secondary time-series data from the NMCP. National data spanning from 2020 to 2024 were scrutinised to evaluate shifts in coverage, availability, and use of interventions, alongside malaria incidence. A forecast of the impact up to 2030 was performed using Error, Trend, and Seasonality (ETS) modelling. The analysis, based on the theory of change, explored the connection between the execution of interventions and their epidemiological effects.

In 2024, the use of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) was recorded at 81.02% among pregnant women and 68.2% among children aged < 5 years. Seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) coverage was 97.8%. The adoption rates of rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) and artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACTs) were 98.5% and 97.96%, respectively. These measures collectively led to a reduction in malaria cases from 537.5 to 446.4 per 1,000 people annually. However, supply chain disruptions and inefficient resource use continue to hinder their overall success. Forecasts indicate that by 2030, the incidence could rise to 473.06 cases per 1,000 individuals (confidence interval [CI]: 242.81-703.28).

This study assessed the effectiveness of malaria control efforts in Burkina Faso. The results revealed issues concerning the accessibility and use of these interventions by the target population. To eliminate malaria, it is essential to sustainably improve resources, enhance governance, and develop new tailored strategies.