Integration of retinal layer thinning into NEDA-3 predicts disability progression in multiple sclerosis

Retinal layer thinning is associated with disability progression and treatment failure in relapsing multiple sclerosis (RMS). However, the systematic integration of optical coherence tomography (OCT)-derived metrics into a composite measure of treatment response has not yet been evaluated.

We analyzed two observational cohorts of patients with RMS who newly initiated DMT, received an MRI and OCT at baseline and 12 months, and had ≥ 24 months of clinical follow-up. No evidence of disease activity (NEDA-3/NEDA-3 + OCT) status was assigned at 12 months after DMT. Retinal thinning was defined as a reduction of ≥ 1.0 µm/year peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer or ≥ 0.5 µm/year ganglion-cell/inner plexiform layer. The primary endpoint was confirmed disability progression occurring after the 12 month NEDA assessment. Both low-efficacy DMT and high-efficacy were included and analyzed jointly, with treatment class entered as a covariate in all models.

Overall, 124 individuals (72% female, mean age 33.1 [SD ± 7.7] years, median EDSS of 2.0 [IQR 0.0-2.5]) were included. Over a median follow-up period of 3.4 years, disability progression was observed in 28 (23%) individuals. Time to and risk of disability progression did not significantly differ between EDA-3 and NEDA-3 (restricted mean survival time [RMST]: 43.4 [SE ± 2.8] vs. 48.1 [SE ± 1.3] months, p = 0.067; adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.52, 95% LL-CI 0.64, p = 0.173). When retinal layer thinning was incorporated, EDA-3 + OCT was associated with a higher risk of future progression (aHR 6.59, 95% LL-CI 2.38, p = 0.005) and shorter time to progression (RMST: 41.9 [SE ± 2.1] vs. 51.9 [SE ± 0.9] months, p < 0.001).

Incorporating retinal layer thinning into the NEDA-3 framework substantially improves prediction of subsequent disability progression compared with conventional NEDA-3 alone, identifying a subgroup of patients in whom ongoing neurodegeneration appears to drive disability accumulation despite suppressed inflammatory activity.