Ecological conservation priority requires foresight: coupling multiple scenarios and network perspective

Understanding how future land-use dynamics reshape urban ecological network connectivity remains a critical challenge for sustainable landscape management. This study couples land-use simulation with ecological network analysis to assess network changes in Minsk, Belarus, under three 2035 scenarios: business as usual (BAU), ecological conservation development (ECD), and rapid urban development (RUD). The results show that projected urban expansion, especially under the RUD scenario, encroaches on forest habitats and intensifies ecological source fragmentation, while ECD better maintains ecological source suitability and network stability. The number of ecological corridors increases from 99 in 2022 to 122, 118, and 107 under the BAU, ECD, and RUD scenarios, respectively; and mean corridor length increases from 1876 m to 2155 m, 1938 m, and 2234 m, respectively, corresponding to increases of 8.1-23.2% in corridor number and 3.3-19.1% in mean corridor length. These increases likely reflect longer and more fragmented linkages rather than improved overall connectivity. By integrating landscape-scale pattern changes with corridor-level pinch points and barrier points, this study reveals how alternative development pathways reshape critical network components and conservation priorities. The findings provide scenario-based and spatially explicit evidence for adaptive ecological network planning under future land-use uncertainty.