Moving targets: threat and uncertainty on the front line

Programs for training individuals to work in hazardous environments should be based on a clear understanding of how extreme danger affects cognitive performance. But our understanding of life-threatening experiences is necessarily limited by the fact that we cannot practically or ethically study them in the controlled context of the laboratory.

Here we draw upon first-hand accounts of individuals who work under serious threat to explore potential gaps in the research on, and training for, cognition under threat. We conducted intensive one-on-one interviews with 10 members of highly specialized military forces, each of whom provided moment-to-moment accounts of life-threatening events. They also shared beliefs about optimal traits of team members and training approaches.

Thematic analyses revealed important insights about the variety of threatening experiences that military personnel confront. Key themes emerged regarding the inherent unpredictability of operational environments and the effects of that unpredictability on affect, cognition, and behaviour. Participants highlighted the necessity of cognitive flexibility when confronting ongoing changes in the environment. They also highlighted the unavoidable challenge of making critical decisions amid uncertainty. Critically, participants raised serious doubts about the ability of either training programs or intelligence gathering to adequately prepare personnel to confront unpredictability.

Based on these insights, we discuss the necessity of research and training to tackle the interactive effects of threat and uncertainty. We further discuss how nontraditional warfare and recent technological additions to battlespace (e.g., autonomous systems) amplify this necessity, and how innovations in training might address these challenges.