Short-term prognostic index in acute myocardial infarction. Multivariate analysis by Cox model

A new multivariate stepwise linear regression analysis (Cox's model) with survival time as prognostic endpoint was utilized in 281 patients with acute myocardial infarction. From 18 prognostic factors occurring during the first 5 days in the Coronary Care Unit a new prognostic index was calculated for the chance of survival in the first 36 days after admission. The significant prognostic variables were heart failure, cardiogenic shock, atrioventricular block and age. The total group of patients was classified in 6 subgroups with different mean indices and prognosis. There were 2 large groups of patients with relative bad and good prognosis (with and without heart failure). Over half of the patients had no prognostic variables. There was a trend of overestimating the expected deaths. A definite cardiac cause of death was shown by 23 patients (82%). This prognostic index based on the 4 variables can for the individual patient predict the chance of survival, which can be the basis of an individualized duration of hospital stay.