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A dialysis need-forecasting model. A retrospective evaluation.

J S Pliskin, E J Tell

    Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making
    |January 1, 1983
    PubMed
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    This study evaluates a dialysis bed forecasting model used by the Massachusetts Department of Public Health (DPH). The flexible model accurately informed resource allocation for end-stage renal disease planning.

    Area of Science:

    • Health Services Research
    • Public Health Planning
    • Renal Medicine

    Background:

    • A dialysis bed forecasting model was developed in 1972 for informal planning.
    • The Massachusetts Department of Public Health (DPH) formally adopted the model in 1978 for end-stage renal disease (ESRD) planning.
    • The model has been in use for ten years, with two years of formal DPH adoption.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To evaluate the accuracy, financial impact, and resource allocation impact of the DPH dialysis bed forecasting model.
    • To assess the model's utility as a long-term planning tool for dialysis services.
    • To illustrate model application through case studies of dialysis facility development requests.

    Main Methods:

    • Evaluation of the model's performance over a decade of availability and two years of formal use.

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  • Analysis of the model's flexibility in adapting to regional parameters, medical innovations, and new data.
  • Assessment of accuracy, financial impact, and impact on dialysis resource allocation.
  • Review of case studies demonstrating model application for facility planning.

    • Main Results:

    • The model demonstrated flexibility in accommodating diverse inputs and changes over time.
    • The evaluation considered the model's accuracy, financial implications, and effect on dialysis resource distribution.
    • Case studies highlighted the model's practical use in evaluating dialysis facility proposals.

    Conclusions:

    • The forecasting model has proven to be a valuable and adaptable planning tool for dialysis services in Massachusetts.
    • The model effectively supports informed decision-making regarding the development and expansion of dialysis facilities.
    • Continued use and evaluation of the model are recommended for optimizing end-stage renal disease care planning.