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Continuing increase in mesothelioma mortality in Britain
J Peto1, J T Hodgson, F E Matthews
1Section of Epidemiology, Institute of Cancer Research, Belmont, Surrey, UK.
Lancet (London, England)
|March 4, 1995
Summary
Mesothelioma mortality, linked to asbestos exposure, is projected to peak around 2020. Building workers face the highest risk, with deaths expected to rise for decades.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Occupational Health
- Public Health
Background:
- Mesothelioma is a serious cancer strongly linked to asbestos exposure.
- Mesothelioma mortality serves as a key indicator of past asbestos exposure within a population.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze mesothelioma mortality trends since 1968.
- To assess the current mesothelioma epidemic and predict its future trajectory.
- To identify high-risk occupational groups.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of mesothelioma mortality data from 1968 onwards.
- Examination of age and birth cohort patterns in mortality rates.
- Projection of future mortality trends based on observed patterns.
- Review of occupational data from death certificates.
Main Results:
- Mesothelioma mortality rates in men show distinct patterns by age and birth cohort.
- Rates increased for those born up to mid-1948 and have since declined.
- A peak in annual male mesothelioma deaths is predicted around 2020, potentially between 2700-3300.
- Building trades, including plumbers, carpenters, and electricians, are identified as high-risk occupations.
- Mesothelioma deaths are expected to continue increasing for at least 15-25 years.
Conclusions:
- Mesothelioma deaths will likely continue to rise for decades, particularly impacting men born in the 1940s.
- Asbestos exposure in construction and building maintenance is a major contributor to these deaths.
- Awareness and precautions are crucial for workers in high-risk occupations.