[A prognostic model of hepatitis A morbidity]

The growing interest to the study of the processes of the spread of hepatitis A (HA) in big cities of our country has stimulated the development of a new prognostic model at the Gamaleia Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology. The model specifically takes into account a number of factors linked with the dynamics of the development of the disease in 6 stages and some regularities in the seasonal rises of HA morbidity. Quantitative relations in the mathematical model are determined by a system of nonlinear integral-differential equations with the first order partial derivatives and under the integral type boundary conditions, which increases the strictness of modeling of HA. The use of this new model has made it possible to carry out the prognostic-analytical study of HA morbidity among children in Perm and to evaluate a decrease in HA morbidity due to the hypothetical vaccination of children in spring months.