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The implications of an epidemiological mistake: a community's response to a perceived excess cancer risk
1Department of Health Services Administration and Community Medicine, University of Alberta Faculty of Medicine, Edmonton, Canada.
Objectives:
The response of community residents to a perceived cancer excess may include changes in attitude, health-related behavior, and property values. In 1986, a cancer agency conducted a study of cancer incidence (1979 to 1983) in two suburbs of Edmonton, Alberta, and reported elevations on the order of 25% over expected for most sites. Reanalysis of these data several months later revealed an error. Correction brought the rates into line with Alberta as a whole and with other communities surrounding Edmonton.
Methods:
We used public opinion trends and property value trends (during the period of concern) to study the two communities affected by the allegation of increased cancer risk.
Results:
A survey of residents found significant differences at the time in health-related behavior and beliefs suggesting increased perception of personal, family, and community risk and modest changes in behavior. Real estate values in one community temporarily lost an average of $4000, or about 5% of total value, compared with a similar, adjacent housing market.
Conclusions:
The perception of an elevated cancer risk, in the absence of a true risk, may have a substantial negative effect on the affected community, both psychologically and economically.