On-line estimation and prediction of urea kinetics during hemodialysis: a simulation approach

A new method for the on-line estimation of urea kinetic parameters from blood urea concentration (BUN) continuously measured during a dialysis session is proposed. The method, based on the variable-volume double-pool model, is evaluated through a simulation approach in order to easily consider a large set of well-controlled test conditions. The model is characterized by six parameters, knowledge of which enables early prediction of the end dialysis urea concentration and the dose of dialysis. The sensitivity of the model predicted BUN with respect to the parameters was first analyzed to investigate which can be reliably estimated from blood urea measurements taken at a suitable rate. This analysis showed that the model predicted BUN is highly sensitive to the initial blood urea concentration and to the dialyzer clearance, normalized with respect to the total initial distribution volume, while it is scarcely influenced by the normalized ultrafiltration and urea generation rates. The new on-line estimation technique keeps these two last parameters constant and takes advantage of an original analytic solution of the second order urea kinetics. The results of the estimation process on realistic simulated data showed that the proposed method provides early and reliable estimates of the normalized clearance and of the end dialysis concentration. The transcellular mass transfer coefficient and the intra-extra cellular volume ratio can also be estimated, although with less accuracy. Moreover, it was shown that the use of the single-pool model, instead of the double-pool one, provides systematic errors on the estimates.