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Environmentally driven epizootics

L J Allen1, P J Cormier

  • 1Department of Mathematics, Texas Tech University, Lubbock 79409, USA.

Mathematical Biosciences
|January 1, 1996
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

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Environmental changes can trigger disease outbreaks in wildlife. Mathematical models show diseases can cause species extinction, with survivors acting as disease reservoirs.

Area of Science:

  • Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Biology

Background:

  • Environmental changes can alter species dynamics and disease transmission.
  • Epizootics, or animal disease epidemics, are influenced by ecological factors.
  • Existing models often simplify the complex interplay between environment, species, and disease.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate how environmental conditions drive epizootics using mathematical models.
  • To analyze single-species (SI and SIS) and two-species epizootic models.
  • To understand the impact of population size and environmental carrying capacity on disease spread and extinction.

Main Methods:

  • Development and analysis of single-species SI (Susceptible-Infected) and SIS (Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible) models.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Coupling single-species models to create three distinct two-species models with variable contact rates.
  • Examination of models with constant contact rates for comparative analysis.

    • Main Results:

    • A reproductive number (R) was defined, dependent on environmental carrying capacity.
    • In two-species models, disease can drive the susceptible-in-fatality population to extinction.
    • The surviving species can act as a reservoir for the pathogen.

    Conclusions:

    • Environmental factors are critical drivers of epizootics.
    • Disease dynamics can lead to species extinction, highlighting the ecological impact of pathogens.
    • Mathematical modeling provides valuable insights into wildlife disease dynamics and potential outcomes.