[The prognostic factors in astrocytic tumors: analysis by the Kaplan-Meier method and the Weibull log-linear model]

As the prognosis of astrocytic tumors depends on various factors, identifying prognostic factors should be useful for developing strategies to cope with them. Between 1975 and 1994, more than 200 patients with astrocytic tumors were treated in Kagoshima University. Of these patients, 149 (grade I: 17, grade II: 42, grade III: 41, grade IV: 42, unproven: 7) have been followed up. Records of these patients were retrospectively reviewed for age at the time of initial symptoms, gender, histological grade (WHO), extent of tumor resection, radiation therapy, and administration of anticancer agents. We used the Kaplan-Meier method and the Weibull log-linear model to analyze the relation between survival time and these prognostic factors. Survival time was counted from onset of symptoms, and age of initial treatment was used as a covariant. The mean age of males at the initial diagnosis was 40.8 years (n = 77), and that of females was 39 years (n = 72). Using the Kaplan-Meier method, the mean survival time of the 149 patients was 101 months (males; 72.7 months, females; 134.5 months). Mean survival time of grade II was 144.3 months, that of grade III was 95.2 months, and grade IV (glioblastoma) was 15.9 months. Histological grades and mean ages of the groups showed a positive correlation. Among grades II, III and IV, the Kaplan-Meier survival curves were significantly different (p < 0.0001) according to the log-rank test. By the extent of surgical resection (subtotal or greater resection, partial resection, and less than partial resection), the mean survival time showed a significant difference (p < 0.05) on the log-rank test. However, we could not detect a significant difference in survival time between the group that received chemotherapy and the group which did not. The Weibull log-linear analysis indicated that gender, age, histological grade (WHO), extent of surgery, and dose of radiation therapy were prognostic factors. Covariants of grades II, III, and IV made survival time 0.314, 0.179, and 0.069 times as long as that of grade I. The survival time after "partial resection" became 1.415 times as long as the survival time after "less than partial resection". The covariant of "greater than subtotal resection" showed a prolonged survival time of 2.916 compared with that of "less than partial resection". As for age at treatment, the older the patient was, the shorter the survival time. The rate was 0.986 for each year of age. Irradiation of one Gy increased survival time by 1.015 times. Chemoimmunotherapy (dose of ACNU and interferon beta) could not be confirmed as an effective covariant.