[Outcome predictive factors at six months for patients over 75 years admitted for emergency care]

A sample of 199 elderly patients (over 75) admitted to emergency care sections of the Marne's (French department) public hospitals were monitored over six months. The purpose of this study was to assess the factors predicting death or institutionization of elderly patients, in order to improve patient care. Surveys were carried out to collect information on health, standards of living, family surrounding and background, social support and level of dependence. After 6 months, 63 (32%) have died and 19 (12.5%) have been directed to institutions. Risk of death factors are primarily connected with the environment. The risk was multiplied by three for patients placed in institutions and absence of children's visit increased the risk by seven. Dependence was also a risk factor. On the other hand, age and clinical diagnosis had little effect. Risk factors for institutionalization were: admission over the week end (OR = 29), non-accompanied (OR = 31), altered mental abilities (OR = 14), absence of children's visit (OR = 22). These predictors will render possible the rapid identification of high risk patients in every day practice. The improvement of gerontological competences in emergency care sections should enable quicker, more inclusive and adapted care. Measures to stimule or substitute for the failing natural relational network of elderly patients are also needed.