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Human Influence on the Atmospheric Vertical Temperature Structure: Detection and Observations
1S. F. B. Tett, J. F. B. Mitchell, D. E. Parker, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK Meterological Office, London Road, Bracknell, Berkshire RG12 2SY, UK. M. R. Allen, Space Science Department, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Chilton, Didcot, OX11 0QX, UK.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|November 15, 1996
Summary
Human activities demonstrably influence climate change. This is confirmed by analyzing radiosonde data and sophisticated climate simulations, showing a combined effect of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and ozone.
Area of Science:
- Climate science
- Atmospheric science
- Oceanography
Background:
- Growing evidence suggests human activities impact global climate patterns.
- Previous studies relied on more restrictive assumptions to establish this link.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate and confirm discernible human influence on climate.
- To analyze climate data with less restrictive assumptions than prior research.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a 1961-1995 dataset of radiosonde observations.
- Employed ensembles of coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations.
- Forced simulations with changes in greenhouse gases, tropospheric sulfate aerosols, and stratospheric ozone.
Main Results:
- Agreement between simulations and observations was strongest when considering a combination of greenhouse gas, aerosol, and ozone forcing.
- The findings support the hypothesis of human influence on climate.
Conclusions:
- Human influence on climate is discernible and supported by observational data and climate models.
- Remaining uncertainties stem from imperfect knowledge of radiative forcing, natural variability, and model/observation errors.