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Summary
Fertility intentions reported in 1970 overestimated actual births between 1971-1975, similar to the total fertility rate. However, individual-level predictions of fertility intentions showed considerable validity compared to other indicators.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Sociology
- Reproductive Health
Background:
- Assessing the accuracy of fertility predictions is crucial for demographic and policy planning.
- Previous studies have explored various indicators of future fertility behavior.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the aggregate and individual validity of reported fertility intentions.
- To compare the predictive power of fertility intentions with other demographic measures.
Main Methods:
- Utilized data from the 1975 National Fertility Study (NFS).
- Reinterviewed continuously married white women previously surveyed in the 1970 NFS.
- Analyzed reported fertility intentions against actual fertility outcomes over a five-year period (1971-1975).
Main Results:
- At the aggregate level, 1970 fertility intentions overestimated 1971-1975 fertility, matching the overestimation by the 1970 total fertility rate.
- Individual-level analysis revealed that reported fertility intentions possessed considerable validity.
- Fertility intentions demonstrated comparable vulnerabilities to other period-based fertility measures at the aggregate level.
Conclusions:
- Reported fertility intentions, while imperfect, offer valuable insights into future fertility trends.
- Individual-level fertility intentions serve as a more reliable indicator than aggregate measures.
- Further research should explore the nuances of intention formation and its relationship with actual fertility behavior.