Analysis of exogenous components of mortality risks

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Biostatistics
• Public Health

Background:

• Mortality risk analysis typically models overall death rates.
• Distinguishing between endogenous (internal) and exogenous (external) risk factors is crucial for targeted public health interventions.
• Existing methods may not adequately isolate these components from national vital statistics.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and validate a novel technique for decomposing mortality risks into endogenous and exogenous components using national vital statistics.
• To analyze the trends and contributions of exogenous mortality risk factors in specific populations (Moscow and Russia) over a defined period.

Main Methods:

• A mathematical model representing observed death rates (Dij) as a sum of endogenous (Aj) and exogenous (BiCj) components was formulated.
• Unknown parameters (Aj, Bi, Cj) were estimated using a least-squares procedure, with coefficients of variation not exceeding 10%.
• Endogenous components (Aj) were further modeled using a regression function aligned with the Gompertz-Makeham law, showing coefficients of variation under 4%.

Main Results:

• The model successfully differentiated endogenous and exogenous mortality risk components.
• Exogenous risk components in Moscow increased from 1992 to 1994, peaking in 1994.
• Lethal diseases constituted the largest portion of exogenous risk (61.9% of deaths in 1994).
• Exogenous mortality risk dynamics showed identical increasing trends in Moscow and the rest of Russia from 1990-1994, with higher levels observed in the Russian population outside Moscow.

Conclusions:

• The developed technique provides a robust method for dissecting mortality risks into internal and external drivers.
• Exogenous factors, particularly diseases, significantly impact mortality trends and exhibit distinct patterns between urban and national populations.
• The findings highlight the importance of monitoring and addressing exogenous mortality risks for public health policy development.