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流感病毒的进化,安全性和高度病原性流感病毒
Marc Lipsitch1, Joshua B Plotkin, Lone Simonsen
1Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics and Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA. mlipsitc@hsph.harvard.edu
概括
预测流感病毒的演变是很困难的,这给病毒性菌株的实验带来了很大的风险. 明确的风险益处评估对于未来对危险病原体的研究至关重要.
科学领域:
- 病毒学 病毒学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 风险评估 风险评估
背景情况:
- 流感病毒的演变是复杂的,很难从遗传序列中预测.
- 对流感病毒的实验室研究可能无法完全捕捉现实世界的风险.
- 预测病毒演变的不确定性给潜在危险菌株的实验带来了风险.
研究的目的:
- 为了突出预测流感病毒演变的固有困难.
- 强调与对毒性流感病毒的实验工作相关的风险.
- 倡导对涉及高后果病原体的研究采取谨慎的方法.
主要方法:
- 审查有关流感病毒演变和可预测性的现有知识.
- 分析进化不确定性对实验室研究的影响.
- 讨论与毒性病原体实验的风险-收益考虑.
主要成果:
- 核酸序列数据提供了对病毒表型和健康状况的不完整预测.
- 预测病毒进化的时间和过程仍然非常具有挑战性.
- 实验室观察在指导实地监测解释方面存在局限性.
结论:
- 流感演变的固有不可预测性意味着与哺乳动物可传播的病毒性菌株实验的风险仍然很大.
- 实验室发现可能无法充分缓解意外或故意释放危险病原体的风险.
- 未来对具有流行病潜力的毒性病原体进行实验需要明确的风险效益评估.
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