碳管理技术 - - 实现全美经济净零排放目标的途径
Matthew Binsted1, Ellie Lochner1, Jae Edmonds1
1Joint Global Change Research Institute (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland).
概括
在美国,到2050年实现净零二氧化碳 (CO2) 排放严重依赖于二氧化碳去除技术,如点源二氧化碳捕获和储存 (PSCCS) 和直接空气捕获二氧化碳 (DACCS). 没有这些,净零目标变得更加昂贵,而且可能无法实现.
科学领域:
- 气候变化建模模型
- 能源系统分析 能源系统分析
- 碳管理技术 碳管理技术
背景情况:
- 第37届能源建模论坛 (EMF 37) 召开,分析到2050年美国实现零净二氧化碳排放的途径.
- 关键技术套件,包括点源二氧化碳捕获和储存 (PSCCS),直接空气捕获二氧化碳 (DACCS) 和系统 (H2),是调查的核心.
研究的目的:
- 探索PSCCS,DACCS和H2在实现美国到2050年净零二氧化碳排放中的作用.
- 量化这些技术对净零路径成本和可行性的影响.
主要方法:
- 设计和模拟了七种不同的场景.
- 为了分析每个场景,多达13种能源模型被采用.
- 对气系统进行了敏感性分析.
主要成果:
- 发现二氧化碳去除技术,特别是PSCCS和DACCS,对于大多数成功的净零途径至关重要.
- 除了PSCCS和/或DACCS,实现净零排放的边际成本增加了2到10倍.
- 作为后备技术的DACCS部署发生在250美元至500美元/二氧化碳之间的碳价格,取决于假定的成本.
- 预计到2050年,平均二氧化碳捕获率为1.3 GtCO2/年,这表明需要大量的基础设施开发.
- (H2) 的作用较小,主要是在难以脱碳的行业.
结论:
- 在没有大量部署碳捕获和储存技术的情况下,到2050年在美国实现净零二氧化碳排放是非常具有挑战性的,如果不是不可能的话.
- 在没有PSCCS和DACCS的情况下,实现净零排放的成本会大幅增加.
- 显示出特定应用的潜力,但并不是大多数模拟场景中整体净零实现的主要驱动因素.
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