在不确定性条件下优化气体进出口能力的利用.
Berend Markhorst1,2, Ruurd Buijs1,2, Ruud Egging-Bratseth3
1Centrum Wiskunde en Informatica, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
概括
通过使用随机编程优化挪威的天然气容量分配,提高了欧洲的能源安全. 调节运营商的风险回避显著提高了系统福利,并确定了关键的网络瓶.
科学领域:
- 能源系统分析 能源系统分析
- 运营研究 运营研究
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
背景情况:
- 天然气对于欧洲的能源供应至关重要,挪威是主要供应国.
- 由于需求和价格的不确定性,挪威天然气网络的入出口能力的管理是复杂的.
- 网络稳定性的担忧往往导致风险偏向的容量分配策略.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个可扩展的随机编程模型,以在不确定性条件下进行最佳的天然气容量分配.
- 分析风险回避对挪威天然气网络容量分配和系统福利的影响.
- 为决策者和利益相关者提供有关系统瓶和灵活性价值的见解.
主要方法:
- 开发一个可扩展的随机编程模型,用于容量分配.
- 对挪威的天然气管道网络的案例研究应用.
- 分析风险回避对最佳容量决策和系统结果的影响.
主要成果:
- 该模型成功地确定了不确定性下的最佳容量分配.
- 在容量分配中缓解风险回避会带来相当大的系统福利收益.
- 识别关键系统瓶,量化灵活性价值.
结论:
- 随机编程为优化天然气容量分配提供了一种有效的方法.
- 减少产能管理中的过度风险回避,可以为欧洲天然气市场带来重大经济效益.
- 该研究为提高能源安全和市场效率提供了有价值的数据和见解.
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