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Do Conditional Hypotheses Target Rare Events?

Craig R. M. McKenzie1, Victor S. Ferreira, Laurie A. Mikkelsen

  • 1University of California, San Diego

Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
|July 20, 2001
PubMed
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People tend to phrase conditional hypotheses using rare events, making observations within these hypotheses highly informative. This aligns with the principle that rare observations are more valuable when testing ideas.

Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Decision Making
  • Hypothesis Testing

Background:

  • Rare observations are normatively more informative than common ones in hypothesis testing.
  • Participants often deem supporting observations within abstract conditional hypotheses more informative than unmentioned ones.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate whether people tend to phrase conditional hypotheses using rare events.
  • To reconcile the principle of rare event informativeness with hypothesis testing behavior.

Main Methods:

  • Six experiments were conducted to examine the phrasing of conditional hypotheses.
  • Participants' tendencies to use rare versus common events in hypothesis formulation were analyzed.

Main Results:

Related Experiment Videos

  • A strong tendency was observed for participants to phrase conditional hypotheses in terms of rare events.
  • This tendency was consistent across the reported experiments.

Conclusions:

  • Conditional hypotheses are frequently framed using rare events.
  • The perceived informativeness of observations in conditional hypotheses may stem from their general rarity.