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Related Experiment Videos

Total error in PES estimates of population.

M H Mulry, B D Spencer

    Journal of the American Statistical Association
    |December 1, 1991
    PubMed
    Summary

    This study introduces a new method to estimate the accuracy of population estimates derived from dual systems (dual systems estimates) and census data. The research provides tentative accuracy estimates for the 1988 dress rehearsal census.

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    Mathematical population studies·1990

    Area of Science:

    • Demography
    • Statistical Methodology
    • Survey Methodology

    Background:

    • Accurate population estimates are crucial for policy and resource allocation.
    • Dual systems estimates (DSEs) combine census data with post-enumeration surveys (PES) for improved accuracy.
    • Evaluating the accuracy of DSEs and census estimates, including undercount, is essential.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To develop and apply a methodology for estimating the accuracy of DSEs, census population estimates, and census undercount estimates.
    • To assess the accuracy of estimates from the 1988 dress rehearsal census in St. Louis and east-central Missouri.
    • To discuss the applicability of the methodology to the 1990 U.S. census and PES.

    Main Methods:

    • The methodology involves decomposing total error into components like sampling error, matching error, and nonsampling errors.
    Keywords:
    AmericasCensusData CollectionDeveloped CountriesDual Data CollectionError SourcesEstimation TechnicsMeasurementMethodological StudiesNorth AmericaNorthern AmericaPopulation Growth EstimationPopulation StatisticsResearch MethodologyUndercountUnited States

    Related Experiment Videos

  • Application of the error decomposition methodology to the 1988 dress rehearsal census data.
  • Utilizing capture-recapture models and addressing limitations in their assumptions.

    • Main Results:

    • Tentative estimates of errors for the 1988 census, DSEs, and undercount estimates were produced.
    • Limitations in error component accuracy, particularly in capture-recapture models, were identified.
    • The study anticipates improved estimates for the 1990 census.

    Conclusions:

    • The developed methodology provides a framework for assessing the accuracy of population estimation techniques.
    • The findings highlight the importance of understanding and quantifying various error sources in demographic estimation.
    • The approach is adaptable for future large-scale census and survey operations.