Statistical approach for risk assessment of aflatoxin sampling plan used by manufacturers for raw shelled peanuts

Processed food manufacturers often use acceptance sampling plans to screen out lots with unacceptable levels of contamination from incoming raw material streams. Sampling plan designs are determined by specifying sample sizes, sample preparation methods, analytical test methods, and accept/reject criteria. Sampling plan performance can be indicated by plotting acceptance probability versus contamination level as an operating characteristic (OC) curve. In practice, actual plan performance depends on the level of contamination in the incoming lot stream. This level can vary considerably over time, among different crop varieties, and among locales. To better gauge plan performance, a method of coupling an OC curve and crop distributions is proposed. The method provides a precise probabilistic statement about risk and can be easily performed with commercial spreadsheet software.