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A model of urbanization with nonlinear migration flows.

J Ledent

    International Regional Science Review
    |December 1, 1986
    PubMed
    Summary

    This study models rural-urban migration, finding nonlinear population-dependent flows are key to urbanization's S-shaped growth. The model accurately predicts urbanization dynamics using US historical data.

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    Regional science and urban economics·1987

    Area of Science:

    • Demography
    • Urban Studies
    • Sociology

    Background:

    • Urbanization is a complex demographic process often exhibiting an S-shaped curve.
    • Understanding migration dynamics between rural and urban areas is crucial for modeling urbanization.
    • Previous models may not fully capture the nonlinear nature of migration flows.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To specify a migration exchange model that accurately reflects the S-shaped evolution of urbanization.
    • To demonstrate that gross migration flows should be nonlinear functions of origin sector population.
    • To introduce a gravity-type model for rural-urban migration flows.

    Main Methods:

    • Specifying gross migration flows as nonlinear functions of population.
    • Developing a gravity-type model for migration exchange.
    Keywords:
    AmericasDemographic FactorsDeveloped CountriesDeveloping CountriesGeographic FactorsHistorical SurveyMigrationModels, TheoreticalNorth AmericaNorthern AmericaPopulationPopulation DynamicsResearch MethodologyRural-urban MigrationSpatial DistributionUnited StatesUrban Spatial DistributionUrbanization

    Related Experiment Videos

  • Applying the model to historical US urbanization data (1790-1980).

    • Main Results:

    • Gross migration flows are best represented as nonlinear functions of the origin population.
    • The model accurately reproduces the S-shaped urbanization curve.
    • Predicted time paths for urban-rural growth rate differential, rural net outmigration, and urban net immigration follow bell-shaped curves.

    Conclusions:

    • The proposed nonlinear, gravity-type migration model provides a robust framework for studying urbanization.
    • The model successfully explains the observed S-shaped urbanization trajectory.
    • The findings offer insights into the dynamics of population redistribution during urbanization.