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Design and Use of a Full Flow Sampling System (FFS) for the Quantification of Methane Emissions
Published on: June 12, 2016
Climate sensitivity uncertainty and the need for energy without CO2 emission
Ken Caldeira1, Atul K Jain, Martin I Hoffert
1Energy and Environment Directorate, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 7000 East Avenue, L-103, Livermore, CA 94550, USA. kenc@llnl.gov
Uncertainty in climate sensitivity significantly impacts allowable carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Achieving climate stabilization necessitates a major shift to CO2-free energy, unless climate sensitivity is low and climate change impacts are high.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Environmental Policy
- Energy Technology
Background:
- The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change aims to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations.
- Determining a "safe" level of climate change is challenging due to uncertainties.
- Current understanding of global temperature sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 has a factor of three uncertainty.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze how uncertainty in climate sensitivity affects allowable CO2 concentrations and emissions.
- To assess the implications for transitioning to CO2 emission-free energy technologies.
Main Methods:
- Modeling the impact of climate sensitivity uncertainty on CO2 emission pathways.
- Evaluating scenarios for climate stabilization under varying climate sensitivities.
Main Results:
- A factor of three uncertainty in climate sensitivity leads to greater uncertainty in permissible CO2 increases and emissions.
- Significant reductions in CO2 emissions are required for climate stabilization, especially if climate sensitivity is not low.
Conclusions:
- Climate stabilization hinges on substantial adoption of CO2 emission-free energy.
- Policy decisions regarding climate change must account for significant uncertainties in climate sensitivity.
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