Cornerstones to shape modeling for the 21st century: introducing the AKA-Glucose project

In this paper, we have reflected on the historical development during the twentieth century of several major cornerstones on which the edifice of mathematical modeling in nutrition and the health sciences was built. When we consider the scope and magnitude of problems in nutrition and the health sciences that have been addressed and solved by mathematical modeling, we as a group can justifiably feel a certain amount of satisfaction. But we should not be complacent. So much more remains to be done. The increasing pace of developments in biology (e.g., the human genome project) places a whole new range of challenges before us. We can also reflect on the mathematical basis of modeling and consider that we enter the twenty-first century with a solid foundation on which to build bigger and better models. At the same time, we have at our disposal computers of immense power. At the start of the twentieth century, no one could have foreseen where we are today. In our lifetimes, computers have been developed from lumbering behemoths with the calculating ability of an abacus to the present day machines with calculating capabilitie that we are only beginning to appreciate. There is general consensus that developments in the field of computing will continue far into the twenty-first century. Therefore, w can confidently assert that developments in modeling will not be greatly limited by our present mathematical foundation or by the capabilities of computers. In this paper, we have mainly dwelt on three cornerstones: the model development environment model dissemination and database technologies data exchange and post-fitting analysis. We have focused on SAAM, WinSAAM, and AKA-Glucose as illustrating these cornerstones, while acknowledging that there are many other modeling programs that also represent them. However, a building usually has four cornerstones. If one cornerstone is missing, then there may be a structural weakness in the entire building. We contend that, at the start of the twenty-first century, the edifice of modeling is missing the important fourth cornerstone: a modeling community. As modelers, we should cease to bowl alone. Now is the time to make a new beginning, to give modeling some formality, structure, and direction. We should form a community of modelers as we move into the 21st century.