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Related Experiment Videos

Predictive thresholds for plague in Kazakhstan.

Stephen Davis1, Mike Begon, Luc De Bruyn

  • 1Danish Pest Infestation Laboratory, Skovbrynet 14, DK-2800 Kongens Lyngby, Denmark.

Science (New York, N.Y.)
|May 1, 2004
PubMed
Summary

Plague outbreaks in Central Asia are driven by the population dynamics of the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus). Understanding these fluctuations helps predict and manage bubonic plague in wildlife and humans.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Epidemiology
  • Microbiology

Background:

  • The bacterium Yersinia pestis circulates in gerbil populations in Central Asia, serving as the primary source for human bubonic plague cases.
  • Wildlife populations, particularly rodents, play a critical role in the enzootic maintenance and transmission dynamics of plague.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze long-term field data on plague dynamics in relation to the abundance of its primary reservoir host, the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus).
  • To provide an empirical example of invasion and persistence thresholds in a single wildlife population for an infectious disease.
  • To develop predictive models for plague surveillance in Central Asia.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of field data on plague occurrence and great gerbil abundance spanning from 1955 to 1996.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Statistical modeling to identify relationships between host population fluctuations and plague dynamics.
  • Parameterization of predictive models based on empirical observations.

    • Main Results:

    • Plague incidence (invasion and fade-out) directly correlates with variations in great gerbil population abundance.
    • Demonstrated the simultaneous operation of invasion and persistence abundance thresholds for plague within a single host population.
    • Successfully parameterized predictive models for plague surveillance.

    Conclusions:

    • Great gerbil population dynamics are a key determinant of plague circulation and outbreaks in Central Asia.
    • The findings offer a valuable empirical case study for understanding disease ecology in wildlife reservoirs.
    • The developed models can enhance the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of ongoing plague surveillance efforts in the region.