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Business cycles and mortality: results from Swedish microdata
Ulf-G Gerdtham1, Magnus Johannesson
1Department of Community Medicine, Lund University, Malmö University Hospital, SE-205 02 Malmö, Sweden. ulf.gerdtham@smi.mas.lu.se
Social Science & Medicine (1982)
|October 16, 2004
Summary
Economic downturns, measured by unemployment and GDP deviations, are linked to increased mortality risk in Swedish men. This relationship was not observed in women, suggesting sex-specific effects of business cycles on health outcomes.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Economics
- Sociology
Background:
- Business cycles significantly impact various societal aspects, including population health.
- Previous research has explored socioeconomic determinants of mortality, but the specific link to business cycle fluctuations requires further investigation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the association between business cycle indicators and all-cause mortality risk in a large Swedish cohort.
- To determine if this relationship differs between men and women.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a longitudinal dataset of over 40,000 Swedish individuals followed for 10-16 years.
- Assessed six business cycle indicators: unemployment rate, notification rate, GDP trend deviation, GDP change, industry capacity utilization, and industry confidence indicator.
- Employed survival analysis to model mortality risk in relation to business cycle fluctuations.
Main Results:
- A significant countercyclical relationship between business cycle indicators and mortality risk was found for men for four of the six indicators.
- No significant association between business cycle indicators and mortality risk was observed for women.
- Indicators such as unemployment rate and deviation from GDP trend showed the strongest associations for men.
Conclusions:
- Business cycle fluctuations are associated with increased mortality risk in men, indicating a vulnerable population subgroup during economic downturns.
- The absence of a similar association in women suggests potential sex-based differences in the impact of economic conditions on mortality.
- Further research is warranted to elucidate the mechanisms underlying these sex-specific effects.