The smallpox vaccine: a multidimensional model of choice

Following September 11, 2001, the U.S. government increased its efforts to prepare for future attacks, including those using dangerous biological agents such as smallpox. The smallpox vaccination program called for vaccinating military personnel and smallpox response teams, including healthcare workers and other first responders. The program of vaccinating healthcare workers was largely unsuccessful; few individuals volunteered to be vaccinated, highlighting the importance of understanding the factors that influence choice regarding this complex medical decision. This study examined stated choice and how it was associated with risk perceptions, knowledge, psychological distress, and general vaccine beliefs using a five-dimensional choice model. The model used multivariable modeling strategies in a sample of 256 undergraduate, graduate, and medical students. Sixty-three percent of the sample stated that they would elect to receive the smallpox vaccination. Multiple factors were related to stated choice in multivariable models, including perceived risk/worry, general vaccine beliefs, decisional conflict, and gender. However, the models were more successful at predicting acceptance of the vaccination than vaccine refusal. Although support was obtained for a multidimensional model of choice, several questions were raised by our results, including (a) whether refusal of smallpox vaccination can be more effectively characterized, possibly with additional questions; (b) whether the model translates to actual vaccination behavior; and (c) whether the model describes choice in more at-risk samples (e.g., first responders, healthcare workers). A multidimensional modeling approach should facilitate these and other studies of choice.