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Why anthropic reasoning cannot predict Lambda.

Glenn D Starkman1, Roberto Trotta

  • 1Astrophysics Department, Oxford University, Denys Wilkinson Building, Keble Road, Oxford OX1 3RH, UK.

Physical Review Letters
|December 13, 2006
PubMed
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Anthropic reasoning for the cosmological constant (Lambda) is problematic. Different probability assignments yield conflicting predictions, suggesting the anthropic principle is ill-defined for explaining Lambda.

Area of Science:

  • Cosmology
  • Theoretical Physics
  • Philosophy of Science

Background:

  • The cosmological constant (Lambda) represents a significant puzzle in modern cosmology.
  • Anthropic arguments have been proposed to explain the observed value of Lambda.
  • These arguments rely on assumptions about the distribution of physical parameters across a multiverse.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To critically re-examine anthropic arguments used to explain the cosmological constant.
  • To investigate the impact of different probability weighting schemes on anthropic predictions.
  • To assess the validity of the anthropic principle in explaining fundamental physical parameters.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of various methods for assigning probabilities to hypothetical universes.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Development of an explicit example demonstrating the effect of probability weighting.
  • Comparison of predictions derived from different weighting schemes.

    • Main Results:

    • Different probability assignments lead to drastically different anthropic predictions for Lambda.
    • Weighting universes by the total number of possible observations results in a very low probability for the observed Lambda.
    • The anthropic principle's predictive power is shown to be dependent on the chosen weighting scheme.

    Conclusions:

    • Anthropic reasoning, particularly within the framework of probability as frequency, is ill-defined for explaining Lambda.
    • Without a fundamental basis for selecting a specific weighting scheme, the anthropic principle cannot reliably explain Lambda.
    • The anthropic principle is unlikely to be a valid tool for explaining other physical parameters either.