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Regular intervals between hawaiian earthquakes: implications for predicting the next event.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|November 7, 1986
Summary
Five moderate earthquakes in Hawaii occurred every 10.5 years. This pattern suggests future Kaoiki earthquakes may be predictable if strain accumulation remains constant, aiding seismic hazard assessment.
Area of Science:
- Seismology
- Earthquake Science
- Geophysics
Background:
- Moderate magnitude earthquakes have occurred in Hawaii between 1941 and 1983.
- These seismic events exhibit a regular temporal and spatial pattern.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the periodicity of Kaoiki earthquakes in Hawaii.
- To investigate the potential for predicting future Kaoiki earthquake occurrences.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of historical earthquake data from 1941-1983.
- Examination of earthquake mainshock occurrences within a 6-kilometer radius.
- Assessment of strain accumulation rates and strained volume.
Main Results:
- Five moderate earthquake mainshocks were recorded at regular intervals of 10.5 ± 1.5 years.
- The earthquakes were spatially clustered within a 6-kilometer radius in Hawaii.
Conclusions:
- The consistent interval suggests Kaoiki earthquakes may continue to occur periodically.
- Constant strain accumulation rates and strained volume support the hypothesis of predictable seismic activity.
- Future instrumentation could refine predictions for subsequent Kaoiki earthquakes.
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