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Risk analysis for critical asset protection.
William L McGill1, Bilal M Ayyub, Mark Kaminskiy
1Center for Technology and Systems Management, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA.
Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|December 14, 2007
Summary
This study introduces a quantitative risk framework for critical infrastructure protection, aiding resource allocation. It assesses threats and vulnerabilities from an adversary
Area of Science:
- Risk Management
- Critical Infrastructure Protection
- Quantitative Analysis
Background:
- Effective resource allocation for critical infrastructure is vital.
- Existing risk assessment methods may not fully capture adversary behavior.
Purpose of the Study:
- To propose a quantitative risk assessment and management framework.
- To support strategic asset-level resource allocation for critical infrastructure protection.
Main Methods:
- A five-phase framework: scenario identification, consequence/criticality assessment, vulnerability assessment, threat likelihood assessment, and benefit-cost analysis.
- Asset-driven analysis focusing on fundamental asset characteristics to generate threat scenarios.
- Threat likelihood assessment considering adversary adaptation to security investments.
Main Results:
- The framework provides a structured approach to risk assessment for critical infrastructure.
- It incorporates an innovative method for assessing threat likelihood from an adversary's perspective.
- A notional example demonstrates the framework's practical application.
Conclusions:
- The proposed framework offers a robust methodology for strategic resource allocation in critical infrastructure protection.
- It enhances risk management by considering dynamic adversary behavior.
- The model can be extended for portfolio-level and tactical risk analyses.
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