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The effect of construal level on subjective probability estimates
1Department of Psychology, New York University, 6 Washington Place, New York, NY 10003, USA. cjf236@nyu.edu
Psychological Science
|December 17, 2008
Summary
Psychological distance influences probability judgments. Adopting a high-level construal mindset lowers perceived probability, while a low-level mindset increases it, regardless of the judgment context.
Area of Science:
- Cognitive Psychology
- Decision Science
Background:
- Probability judgments are fundamental to decision-making.
- Existing research often focuses on specific biases, but the influence of general processing styles is less understood.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the conceptualization of probability as psychological distance.
- To examine how construal level affects probability assessments.
Main Methods:
- Multiple studies manipulated construal level (high-level vs. low-level mindset).
- Participants made various probability judgments.
- Construal level manipulations were varied and sometimes context-unrelated to the judgment task.
Main Results:
- Participants in a high-level construal mindset consistently made lower probability assessments.
- Participants in a low-level construal mindset made higher probability assessments.
- This effect persisted even when the manipulation was separate from the judgment context.
Conclusions:
- Construal level, a broad processing variable, significantly impacts probability judgments.
- Psychological distance serves as a valid conceptualization for understanding probability assessments.
- General cognitive mindsets can have widespread effects on judgment and decision-making.
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