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Updated: Jun 18, 2026
05:37
An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
Published on: September 16, 2022
On the complex definition of risk: a systems-based approach.
1Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems, University of Virginia, PO Box 400736, Charlottesville, VA 22904, USA. haimes@virginia.edu
Summary
Understanding system risk, vulnerability, and resilience requires a systems-based approach focusing on system states. This method effectively defines and quantifies risk by considering initiating events, system conditions, and time frames.
Area of Science:
- Systems theory
- Risk analysis
- Philosophy of science
Background:
- Defining risk universally is challenging due to its multidimensional nature.
- Existing frameworks often overlook the critical role of system states in risk assessment.
Purpose of the Study:
- To propose a systems-based philosophical and methodological approach for defining and quantifying risk.
- To highlight the central role of system states in understanding vulnerability and resilience.
Main Methods:
- Conceptualizing risk as a function of initiating events, system states, environmental conditions, and time.
- Defining performance capabilities, vulnerability, and resilience as functions of system states and event parameters.
- Modeling risk by evaluating consequences based on threat, system vulnerability, resilience, and event timing.
Main Results:
- System performance is determined by its state vector.
- Vulnerability and resilience are functions of event input, timing, and system states.
- Consequences depend on event specifics, system states, vulnerability, and resilience.
- System states are time-dependent and subject to uncertainties.
- Risk is quantified as the probability and severity of consequences.
Conclusions:
- A systems-based approach, emphasizing system states, is crucial for effective risk definition and quantification.
- Accurate risk modeling necessitates evaluating consequences across various scenarios using system states.
- Understanding system states is fundamental for robust risk analysis and management.
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