Systems-based guiding principles for risk modeling, planning, assessment, management, and communication.

Area of Science:

• Systems Engineering
• Risk Management
• Complex Systems Analysis

Background:

• Risk assessment, management, and communication in systems of systems are complex.
• A systems engineering perspective is crucial for developing guiding principles.
• Existing approaches may lack a comprehensive, universal framework.

Purpose of the Study:

• To propose 10 universal systems-based guiding principles for risk assessment, management, and communication.
• To initiate a discussion for developing a more complete set of principles.
• To demonstrate the application of these principles using the Next Generation (NextGen) system of systems.

Main Methods:

• Grounded in systems engineering principles.
• Introduced 10 guiding principles for risk assessment and management.
• Applied principles to the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration's NextGen system of systems.

Main Results:

• Holism bridges risk analysis and systems engineering.
• Systemic and integrated processes are essential for risk management.
• Multiple models, meta-modeling, and subsystem integration are key.
• Accounting for uncertainties, low-probability/high-consequence risks, and timeframes is critical.
• Risk analysis must be holistic, adaptive, incremental, and sustainable.

Conclusions:

• The 10 proposed principles provide a foundational framework for risk management in systems of systems.
• Application to NextGen demonstrates the relevance and efficacy of the principles.
• Further interdisciplinary input is encouraged to refine and expand these principles.