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Published on: September 12, 2014
On the complex quantification of risk: systems-based perspective on terrorism.
1University of Virginia,Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems, PO Box 400736, Charlottesville, VA 22904, USA. haimes@virginia.edu
Summary
Quantifying terrorism risk requires understanding system states, including vulnerability and resilience. This approach models risk as a multidimensional function of threats, system conditions, and consequences over time.
Area of Science:
- Systems theory
- Risk analysis
- Terrorism studies
Background:
- Quantifying multidimensional risk functions is complex.
- Existing models may not fully capture the dynamics of terrorism risk.
Purpose of the Study:
- Develop five systems-based premises for quantifying terrorism risk.
- Advocate for quantifying vulnerability and resilience through system states.
Main Methods:
- Systemic and repeatable modeling process.
- Utilizing intelligence gathering and expert evidence.
- Recognizing the time-dependent nature of system states.
Main Results:
- Established interdependence between threats, system states (vulnerability, resilience, criticality-impact), and consequences.
- Demonstrated that risk management policies can alter system states to reduce likelihood and consequences.
- Highlighted the pivotal role of the time frame in risk assessment and management.
Conclusions:
- Risk is a multidimensional function of threat, system states, and probabilistic consequences.
- Quantifying vulnerability and resilience is crucial for accurate terrorism risk assessment.
- A systemic, time-aware modeling approach is essential for repeatable risk quantification.
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