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Linkages among climate change, crop yields and Mexico-US cross-border migration
Shuaizhang Feng1, Alan B Krueger, Michael Oppenheimer
1Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA.
Summary
Climate change impacts crop yields, driving Mexican emigration to the U.S. A 10% yield decrease may prompt 2% more emigration, with millions potentially migrating by 2080.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Agricultural Economics
- Demography
Background:
- Climate change is a significant driver of global human migration.
- Understanding the quantitative link between climate, agriculture, and migration is crucial for policy.
- Previous studies often struggle to isolate climate's impact from other migration factors.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantitatively assess the relationship between climate variations, agricultural yields, and human migration.
- To estimate the impact of climate-driven crop yield changes on emigration rates.
- To project potential future migration flows due to climate change and agricultural decline.
Main Methods:
- Employed an instrumental variables approach to identify the causal effect of crop yields on migration.
- Utilized state-level data from Mexico to analyze emigration to the United States.
- Estimated the semielasticity of emigration with respect to crop yields.
Main Results:
- Found a significant negative relationship between crop yields and emigration rates.
- A 10% decrease in crop yields is associated with a 2% increase in emigration.
- Projected that by 2080, 1.4 to 6.7 million adult Mexicans could emigrate due to reduced agricultural productivity.
Conclusions:
- Climate-induced declines in agricultural productivity are a significant factor in international migration.
- Findings highlight the potential scale of climate-driven migration, particularly in developing countries.
- Results underscore the need for climate adaptation strategies to mitigate migration pressures.
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