Prognostic evaluation of Ki67 threshold value in canine oral melanoma

Oral melanoma is a common canine cancer with a historically poor prognosis. Recent evidence suggests that a subset of cases may have a more favorable outcome, defined as long-term survival in the absence of intervention other than initial surgery. Traditional histological parameters have had prognostic significance in some studies but not in others, potentially due to interobserver variation. We evaluated the prognostic utility of Ki67 immunohistochemistry in a group of 79 canine oral melanomas using a technique easily applied in a veterinary diagnostic laboratory. A threshold Ki67 value of >19.5 had a sensitivity and specificity of 87.1% and 85.4%, respectively, at predicting death or euthanasia due to melanoma by 1 year postdiagnosis. Threshold values for classical histological parameters were also identified for most cases and were >4 (>30%; sensitivity = 83.9%, specificity = 86.0%) for the nuclear atypia score and >4/10 hpfs (sensitivity = 90.3%, specificity = 84.4%) for the mitotic index. In this study, the percentages correctly classified with respect to death by 1 year postdiagnosis were comparable for Ki67 (86.1%, 68/79), the nuclear atypia score (86.3%, 63/73), and the mitotic index (86.8%, 66/76). High pigmentation (>50%) had a high negative predictive value of 90.9% (18/20), but overall, only 61.0% (47/77) of cases could be correctly classified by this parameter. Based on these results, we recommend a panel of prognostic parameters, including the nuclear atypia score, the mitotic index, Ki67, and pigmentation quantification to more accurately predict the likely outcome of canine oral melanomas.