The primacy of thinking about possibilities in the development of reasoning

One of the main tenets of the mental model theory is that when individuals reason, they think about possibilities. According to this theory, reasoning on what is possible from the truth of a sentence would be psychologically basic, whereas reasoning the other way round, on the truth or falsity of a sentence from a given state of affairs, would require some meta-ability. The present study tested the developmental corollary of this theory, which is that reasoning about possibilities should develop first, whereas the development of reasoning about truth-value should be delayed. For this purpose, 3rd, 6th, and 9th graders as well as adults were presented with tasks requiring them to evaluate either the possibilities compatible with conditional sentences or the truth-value of these sentences from these same possibilities. The results revealed 2 phenomena. First, the same developmental trend was observed in both tasks with 3 successive interpretational levels: conjunctive, biconditional, and then conditional. Second, there was a developmental lag between the 2 forms of reasoning--with developmental transitions from one level to the next occurring about 3 years later when reasoning about truth-value. The implications of these results for theories of cognitive development and of reasoning are discussed.