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Updated: May 23, 2026
11:33
Laboratory Production of Biofuels and Biochemicals from a Rapeseed Oil through Catalytic Cracking Conversion
Published on: September 2, 2016
Midwest U.S. landscape change to 2020 driven by biofuel mandates
Megan Mehaffey1, Elizabeth Smith, Rick Van Remortel
1Environmental Sciences Division, National Exposure Research Laboratory, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 109 T. W. Alexander Drive, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711, USA. mehaffey.megan@epa.gov
Summary
Meeting future biofuel targets will significantly increase corn production in the Midwest. This shift involves converting 25 million acres to continuous corn, impacting land use and potentially ecosystem services.
Area of Science:
- Agricultural Science
- Environmental Science
- Econmetrics
Background:
- The 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) mandates increased biofuel production, primarily from corn.
- The US Midwest, a major agricultural region, is expected to lead this corn production increase.
- Understanding land-use changes is crucial for balancing biofuel goals with conservation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a method for projecting future agricultural landscapes under biofuel targets.
- To evaluate changes in farming practices and corn production in the Midwest from 2001 to 2020.
- To integrate economic modeling with land cover data for spatially explicit landscape analysis.
Main Methods:
- Combined econometric model output (CARD model) with gridded land cover data.
- Modeled landscape changes between a base year (2001) and biofuel target year (2020).
- Assessed shifts from rotational cropping to continuous corn and urban growth impacts.
Main Results:
- Projected conversion of 25 million acres of farmland to continuous corn by 2020.
- Observed over 50% increase in continuous corn planting in some Midwest watersheds.
- Predicted a doubling of corn grain production, with 2% accuracy to CARD model estimates.
- Estimated over 7 million acres of farmland lost to urban growth by 2020.
Conclusions:
- The developed method effectively combines economic and spatial data for landscape projection.
- Significant land-use changes, including continuous corn expansion and urban sprawl, are anticipated.
- Understanding these spatial changes is vital for managing trade-offs between economic benefits and ecosystem services for sustainable production.
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