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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Jan 26, 2026

Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions

Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions

Published on: March 31, 2023

Probabilistic cost estimates for climate change mitigation.

Joeri Rogelj¹, David L McCollum, Andy Reisinger

¹Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, CH-8092 Zürich, Switzerland. joeri.rogelj@env.ethz.ch

|January 4, 2013

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

Delaying climate action significantly increases mitigation costs. Political decisions, geophysical factors, energy demand, and technology all influence the cost of limiting global warming to 2°C.

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Area of Science:

Climate Science
Integrated Assessment Modeling
Environmental Economics

Background:

The international goal to limit global warming to 2°C faces challenges due to poorly quantified uncertainties and limited interdisciplinary knowledge integration.
Existing studies often assess technological and socio-economic uncertainties separately from geophysical responses to greenhouse gas emissions.

Purpose of the Study:

To bridge the gap between integrated assessment and climate modeling communities.
To generate cost distributions for limiting transient global temperature increases by integrating geophysical, technological, social, and political uncertainties.

Main Methods:

Developed a model that incorporates uncertainties from four key factors: geophysical, technological, social, and political.
Generated cost distributions for limiting global temperature increases to specific thresholds (e.g., 1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C).

Main Results:

Political choices delaying mitigation efforts have the most substantial impact on the cost-risk distribution.
Geophysical uncertainties, social factors affecting energy demand, and technological uncertainties follow in their influence on mitigation costs.

Conclusions:

Policy-making requires understanding the relative importance of mitigation costs, energy demand, and the timing of global action.
Integrating diverse uncertainties is crucial for accurately assessing the costs and risks associated with climate change mitigation targets.