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The hot-hand fallacy in cognitive control: repetition expectancy modulates the congruency sequence effect
Wout Duthoo1, Peter Wühr, Wim Notebaert
1Department of Experimental Psychology, Ghent University, Belgium. wout.duthoo@ugent.be
Psychonomic Bulletin & Review
|February 2, 2013
Summary
Participants’ expectations about upcoming stimuli influence cognitive control. Expecting stimulus repetitions, not alternations, triggered behavioral adjustments, suggesting proactive control plays a key role.
Area of Science:
- Cognitive Psychology
- Neuroscience
Background:
- The congruency sequence effect (CSE) traditionally implies reactive control adjustments to conflict.
- Existing models of cognitive control emphasize reactive, conflict-driven mechanisms.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the role of expectancies in cognitive control.
- To test if proactive influence of explicit predictions on Stroop performance exists.
- To examine the impact of repetition versus alternation expectancies on the CSE.
Main Methods:
- Four Stroop experiments were conducted.
- Participants made explicit predictions about upcoming stimulus congruency.
- Behavioral data were analyzed to assess the congruency sequence effect (CSE) based on prediction type.
Main Results:
- Participants overpredicted stimulus repetitions, similar to a "hot-hand" fallacy.
- A significant CSE was observed only when participants anticipated a repetition.
- No modulation of the Stroop effect occurred following alternation predictions.
Conclusions:
- Expectancies, particularly for repetitions, can proactively steer attentional control.
- Proactive control processes, like repetition expectancy, are crucial for cognitive control.
- Current cognitive control theories should incorporate proactive mechanisms alongside reactive ones.
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