Can Metabolic Factors be used Prognostically for Short-Term Mortality in HIV-Infected Patients?

Metabolic abnormalities are common throughout the course of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and may occur either due to HIV infection or as a result of side effects of antiretroviral therapy. It has been established that dyslipidemia and dysglycemia associated with HIV disease reduce the long-term survival of the patients, but their role for predicting prognosis of short-term mortality in HIV patients is unknown.

To study dyslipidemia and dysglycemia as a prognostic indicator for short-term mortality (<3 months) in HIV patients.

An observational, prospective study was conducted at a tertiary care center over a period of 6 months. Consecutive HIV-positive patients hospitalized (both, HIV status known prior to hospitalization and the diagnosis made for the first time at admission) in medical wards from March to May 2010 were studied. All patients had their random blood sugars, fasting blood sugars (if possible), fasting lipid profile, and cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) counts tested at the time of enrollment. The patients were followed for a period of 3 months, at the end of which they were categorized as survivors and non-survivors, and the demographic, clinical, and investigational parameters were compared between the above groups. Data was analyzed by applying Mann-Whitney U test, two sample t-test, Fisher-Exact test, and stepwise logistic regression analysis of significance, using the computer-based program, Stata, version 11.1.

A total of 82 patients were enrolled for the study of which 64 (78.05%) were males and 18 (21.95%) were females, with a mean (SD) age of 34.00 (7.0) years. The mean CD4 count was 206.23 (129.5) cells/mm(3). The overall mortality within 3 months was 20.7% (17/82). Mycobacterium tuberculosis as opportunistic infection was found in 42 patients, out of which 13 expired (P=0.02). Patients with low high-density lipoprotein (HDL) and hypertriglyceridemia (adjusted OR = 22.92, P value = 0.03, adjusted OR = 3.4, P value = 0.02, respectively) had high likelihood of mortality within 3 months.

Low HDL and hypertriglyceridemia also appear to be promising short-term mortality markers in HIV patients apart from established factors like low CD4 counts, co-morbid conditions, and opportunistic infections like M. tuberculosis infection. This study warrants further studies with a larger sample size to establish HDL and triglyceride as markers of disease progression and short-term mortality in HIV-infection.