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Split Point Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification of Thermal-Optical Organic/Elemental Carbon Measurements
Published on: September 7, 2019
How shorter black carbon lifetime alters its climate effect
Øivind Hodnebrog1, Gunnar Myhre1, Bjørn H Samset1
1Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo (CICERO), P.O. Box 1129 Blindern, N-0318 Oslo, Norway.
Black carbon (BC) emissions may be underestimated, but its climate impact remains uncertain. Adjusting BC lifetime and vertical profiles improves model accuracy, highlighting the need for these factors in climate impact assessments.
Area of Science:
- Atmospheric Science
- Climate Science
- Aerosol Science
Background:
- Black carbon (BC) is a potent solar radiation absorber, yet its climate impact quantification is debated.
- Current climate models may underestimate global BC emissions and overestimate its presence at high altitudes.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the impact of altered BC emissions and lifetime on its direct aerosol effect.
- To improve the accuracy of modeled BC vertical profiles using observational evidence.
- To assess the total climate impact of BC by considering its vertical profile and climate adjustments.
Main Methods:
- Model simulations with doubled BC emissions and reduced BC lifetime based on observational data.
- Comparison of modeled BC vertical profiles with aircraft observations.
- Integration of altered BC profiles into a global circulation model.
Main Results:
- Doubling BC emissions with reduced lifetime showed a negligible change in the direct aerosol effect.
- Increased emissions coupled with enhanced wet removal led to modeled BC vertical profiles aligning better with observations.
- The study demonstrates the critical role of BC's vertical distribution and rapid climate adjustments in determining its total climate impact.
Conclusions:
- The direct aerosol effect of black carbon may not significantly change with doubled emissions if lifetime is reduced.
- Accurate modeling of BC vertical profiles, informed by observations, is crucial for understanding its climate effects.
- Both the vertical distribution of BC and rapid climate adjustments are essential components for a comprehensive assessment of its climate impact.
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