Kinetic Model Development for Accelerated Stability Studies

Accelerated stability coupled with modeling to predict the stability of compounds, blends, and products at long-term storage conditions provides significant benefits in science-based decision-making throughout drug substance and drug product development. The study can often be completed, including data analysis in the space of three working weeks, and the information gathered and learning made in this time period can rival years of traditional analysis. The speed of the studies allows an earlier assessment of risk to quality enabling appropriate risk mitigation strategies to be implemented in a timely manner. The scientific foundation is based upon Arrhenius kinetic equations that can be linear or nonlinear in time, and can be based upon water vapor pressure or liquid water activity (relative humidity). A variety of kinetic models are evaluated, and the best model is chosen based upon both Bayesian information criteria and an automated assessment of kinetic model parameters fitting within acceptable ranges. Confidence intervals are estimated based upon a bootstrapping approach. Moisture vapor transmission rate models are applied on top of the resulting kinetic models in order to simulate different packaging types and the use of desiccant. The kinetic models are integrated with the prediction of packaging humidity over time to create a long-term prediction of impurities and other phenomena. The resulting models have been shown to be useful for not only the prediction of drug product impurities in long-term storage but other physical phenomena as well such as hydrate development and solvate loss.