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Reference Point Heterogeneity.

Ayse Terzi1, Kees Koedijk1, Charles N Noussair2

  • 1Department of Finance, Tilburg University Tilburg, Netherlands.

Frontiers in Psychology
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PubMed
Summary

Individuals use various reference points when making risky decisions. The population average payoff is the most common reference, but people also consider peer and individual expectations, with some using multiple points simultaneously.

Keywords:
decision makingexperimentreference pointrisk

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Area of Science:

  • Behavioral Economics
  • Decision Science
  • Cognitive Psychology

Background:

  • Individuals commonly utilize reference payoff levels when making decisions under risk.
  • Understanding these reference points is crucial for predicting decision-making behavior.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate which reference points individuals employ when multiple plausible options exist.
  • To determine the most influential reference points in decontextualized risky decision-making tasks.

Main Methods:

  • An experiment was conducted to evaluate four potential reference points: population average, peer expectation, historical average earnings, and anticipated individual payoff.
  • Participant choices were analyzed to identify the reference points that best described their decisions.

Main Results:

  • Significant heterogeneity was observed in the reference points used by individuals.
  • The population average payoff level was the most frequent reference point, followed by experimenter-stated individual expectations, and then historical average earnings.
  • A notable portion of participants simultaneously used multiple reference points.
  • Income shocks did not affect the primary reference point used by individuals.

Conclusions:

  • Decision-making under risk is influenced by a variety of reference points, with population averages being most common.
  • Individual differences in reference point selection are significant.
  • The identified reference points remain stable even when faced with income fluctuations.